balance sheets
us corn and soybean supply & disappearance — five marketing years of history, the latest two USDA WASDE prints, and the Arcanum Analytica end-of-marketing-year forecast with thesis prose. each commodity table is paired with a stocks/use → old-vs-new-crop spread regression chart.
release apr 2026 wasde · prior mar 2026
arcanum forecast column · Δ vs latest USDA · ember tint marks the house view and the stocks/use row
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | mar 2026 | apr 2026 wasde | arcanum | Δ vs current | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| area planted (mil ac) | 90.4 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.9 | 98.8 | 98.8 | 98.8 | — |
| area harvested (mil ac) | 82.2 | 85.0 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 83.0 | 91.3 | 91.3 | 91.3 | — |
| yield (bu/ac) | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179.3 | 186.5 | 186.5 | 186.5 | — |
| beginning stocks | 2,004 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,551 | 1,551 | 1,551 | — |
| production | 14,087 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,892 | 17,021 | 17,021 | 17,021 | — |
| imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 28 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 25 | — |
| total supply | 16,115 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,677 | 18,597 | 18,597 | 18,597 | — |
| feed and residual | 5,667 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,831 | 5,438 | 6,200 | 6,200 | 6,100 | -100 |
| food, seed & industrial | 6,466 | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,880 | 6,815 | 6,970 | 6,970 | 6,990 | +20 |
| ethanol & by-products | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,489 | 5,436 | 5,600 | 5,600 | 5,620 | +20 |
| exports | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,255 | 2,873 | 3,300 | 3,300 | 3,380 | +80 |
| total use | 14,881 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,126 | 16,470 | 16,470 | 16,470 | — |
| ending stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,551 | 2,127 | 2,127 | 2,127 | — |
| stocks/use % | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | +0.0 |
| implied n/z spread (¢) | +91.0 | +50.4 | +66.5 | -23.5 | +17.6 | -5.9 | -5.9 | -5.9 | — |
n/z spread · current market quote · -26.00¢ · reciprocal fit · y = a + b/x · a = -146.91, b = +1821.48 · LOO ±21.6¢ · R²=0.823 · calibration: 2010/11 – 2024/25 (15 MYs)
house view leans modestly tighter than usda on the demand side. fas weekly sales are 3-4% ahead of the seasonal pace implied by the 3.30 bn export figure, and fgis shipments confirm the physical pull-through. corn-for-ethanol grind is sitting in the upper third of its 5-yr seasonal band, so the 5.6 bn ethanol assumption looks roughly right but with positive skew. feed offsets — placements light, cof inventory inline. net: ending stocks largely unchanged on the april print, but the direction of revision risk is lower stocks not higher into the july/aug WASDE. n/z model sits at modest carry given the comfortable s/u, and the live market is trading deeper carry still — if our tighter-demand call is right, the spread has room to roll back toward the regression line.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | mar 2026 | apr 2026 wasde | arcanum | Δ vs current | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| area planted (mil ac) | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.3 | 81.2 | 81.2 | 81.2 | — |
| area harvested (mil ac) | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.2 | 80.4 | 80.4 | 80.4 | — |
| yield (bu/ac) | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 53.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 | — |
| beginning stocks | 539 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 325 | 325 | 325 | — |
| production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,374 | 4,262 | 4,262 | 4,262 | — |
| imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 29 | 25 | 25 | 25 | — |
| total supply | 4,775 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,746 | 4,612 | 4,612 | 4,612 | — |
| crush | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,285 | 2,445 | 2,575 | 2,610 | 2,625 | +15 |
| exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,979 | 1,700 | 1,882 | 1,575 | 1,540 | 1,485 | -55 |
| seed | 78 | 77 | 72 | 75 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 73 | — |
| residual | 33 | 30 | 42 | 44 | 23 | 39 | 39 | 39 | — |
| total use | 4,518 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,421 | 4,262 | 4,262 | 4,222 | -40 |
| ending stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 325 | 350 | 350 | 390 | +40 |
| stocks/use % | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | +1.0 |
| implied n/x spread (¢) | +163.6 | +163.6 | +155.5 | +12.5 | +18.3 | +34.6 | +34.6 | +23.1 | -11.5 |
n/x spread · current market quote · +6.25¢ · reciprocal fit · y = a + b/x · a = -69.12, b = +851.66 · LOO ±60.9¢ · R²=0.560 · calibration: 2010/11 – 2024/25 (15 MYs)
house view leans BEARISH ending stocks vs april usda — meaning we expect ending stocks to revise HIGHER, not lower, into the summer prints. the variance source is exports: fas weekly soy sales are running ~5% below the pace implied by the 1.54 bn export number, and brazilian fob is still trading premium-ish enough to keep marginal chinese tons going to santos rather than nola. crush is the offset — nopa march was strong on renewable-diesel pull, and oil stocks are tighter than seasonal, which biases the crush figure higher. the question is whether crush absorbs the export miss in full. our base case: it doesn't, so end-of-MY stocks finish ~30 mn bu above usda's april number. n/x model implies modest carry consistent with our looser stocks forecast; live market trading slightly tighter than our model suggests, watching for the spread to roll toward the regression line if exports continue to miss.