usda fas · export sales · weekly
export sales
weekly forward bookings and shipments of u.s. corn and soybeans via the usda fas export sales reporting program. each commodity shows both the current and next marketing year against a five-year historical band; the cumulative net-sales chart projects forward from this week's pace, the cumulative shipments chart compares that path against the live wasde target, and the destination chart breaks current outstanding sales and shipments-to-date by buyer.
summary
corn
latest data wk ending 16 jul 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 13m bu
-48.3% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 2.59b bu | +59% | 78% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 2.95b bu | +59% | 89% of wasde |
| outstanding | 463m bu | +77% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.33b bu · jul 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 3.27b bu | -1.8% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2021/22) | 3.11b bu | -6.4% |
| 5y avg pace | 3.15b bu | -5.3% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 3.20b bu (-3.9% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 1.88× of 5y avg (+88% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mexico | 25% | — | +1.3σ | +1.31σ | loose |
| japan | 18% | — | +1.1σ | +1.14σ | loose |
| korea, republic of | 10% | — | +1.3σ | +1.25σ | loose |
| colombia | 10% | — | +0.6σ | +0.60σ | somewhat loose |
| taiwan | 4% | — | -1.9σ | -1.86σ | tight |
aggregate +0.95σ → tilt
-1.9%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 3.13b bu (-5.7%, -191m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 28m bu
-4.4% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 294m bu | -6% | 9% of wasde |
| outstanding | 298m bu | -7% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.20b bu · jul 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 479m bu | -85.0% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2019/20) | 612m bu | -80.9% |
| 5y avg pace | 491m bu | -84.7% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 525m bu (-83.6% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 14.74× of 5y avg (+1374% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 525m bu (-83.6%, -2.67b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
soybeans
latest data wk ending 16 jul 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 2m bu
-45.5% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 1.22b bu | -8% | 81% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 1.41b bu | -20% | 93% of wasde |
| outstanding | 107m bu | -39% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.52b bu · jul 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 1.50b bu | -1.2% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2023/24) | 1.51b bu | -0.9% |
| 5y avg pace | 1.52b bu | +0.2% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 1.51b bu (-0.9% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 0.97× of 5y avg (-3% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| china, peoples republic of | 32% | — | +1.2σ | +1.23σ | loose |
| egypt | 12% | — | +1.6σ | +1.56σ | loose |
| mexico | 8% | — | +0.9σ | +0.88σ | somewhat loose |
| indonesia | 6% | — | +1.7σ | +1.72σ | loose |
| japan | 5% | — | -0.8σ | -0.77σ | somewhat tight |
aggregate +1.13σ → tilt
-2.3%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 1.47b bu (-3.1%, -47m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 56m bu
+543.7% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 225m bu | -27% | 14% of wasde |
| outstanding | 225m bu | -27% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.66b bu · jul 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 466m bu | -71.9% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2023/24) | 553m bu | -66.7% |
| 5y avg pace | 556m bu | -66.5% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 510m bu (-69.3% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 4.34× of 5y avg (+334% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 510m bu (-69.3%, -1.15b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
current marketing year2025/26
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 13m bu · outstanding: 463m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 13m bu · outstanding: 463m bu
weekly exports shipped
wk shipped: 70m bu · cum shipped: 2.95b bu
cumulative exports shipped
wk shipped: 70m bu · cum shipped: 2.95b bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 13m bu · outstanding: 463m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 13m bu
next marketing year2026/27
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 28m bu · outstanding: 298m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 28m bu · outstanding: 298m bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 28m bu · outstanding: 298m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 28m bu
data: usda foreign agricultural service · export sales reporting (esr api) · wasde targets sourced from usda psd online
rebuilt 28 jul 2026 · latest wk 16 jul 2026 · wasde jul 2026 (psd online)