usda fas · export sales · weekly
export sales
weekly forward bookings and shipments of u.s. corn and soybeans via the usda fas export sales reporting program. each commodity shows both the current and next marketing year against a five-year historical band; the cumulative net-sales chart projects forward from this week's pace, the cumulative shipments chart compares that path against the live wasde target, and the destination chart breaks current outstanding sales and shipments-to-date by buyer.
summary
corn
latest data wk ending 28 may 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 35m bu
-6.3% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 2.40b bu | +55% | 73% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 2.46b bu | +59% | 75% of wasde |
| outstanding | 755m bu | +55% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.30b bu · may 2026 (psd online)
bottom-up build · primary framework
| shipped to date | 2.46b bu | |
| + outstanding × 7% cancel | 702m bu | of 755m bu balance |
| + new sales contribution (5y avg) | 81m bu | range 16m bu → 141m bu, n=4 |
| = bottom-up base | 3.25b bu |
range · bear (15% cancel + low new sales) 3.12b bu (-5.4%)
→ bull (3% cancel + high new sales) 3.34b bu (+1.1%)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| bottom-up base (primary) | 3.25b bu | -1.6% |
| current pace continued | 3.27b bu | -0.8% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2021/22) | 2.95b bu | -10.5% |
| 5y avg pace | 2.97b bu | -9.9% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 3.17b bu (-4.0% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 1.65× of 5y avg (+65% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mexico | 25% | — | +1.5σ | +1.50σ | loose |
| japan | 18% | — | +1.1σ | +1.14σ | loose |
| korea, republic of | 11% | — | +1.3σ | +1.25σ | loose |
| colombia | 9% | — | +0.6σ | +0.60σ | somewhat loose |
| taiwan | 4% | — | -1.9σ | -1.86σ | tight |
aggregate +1.03σ → tilt
-2.1%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 3.10b bu (-5.9%, -196m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 10m bu
+52.2% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 122m bu | -47% | 4% of wasde |
| outstanding | 126m bu | -47% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.15b bu · may 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| current pace continued | 270m bu | -91.4% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2023/24) | 450m bu | -85.7% |
| 5y avg pace | 402m bu | -87.2% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 352m bu (-88.8% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 10.83× of 5y avg (+983% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 352m bu (-88.8%, -2.80b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
soybeans
latest data wk ending 28 may 2026
current my (2025/26)
cmy
this week
net sales 10m bu
+42.5% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 1.17b bu | -8% | 77% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 1.31b bu | -23% | 85% of wasde |
| outstanding | 160m bu | -19% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.53b bu · may 2026 (psd online)
bottom-up build · primary framework
| shipped to date | 1.31b bu | |
| + outstanding × 7% cancel | 149m bu | of 160m bu balance |
| + new sales contribution (5y avg) | 48m bu | range 34m bu → 67m bu, n=3 |
| = bottom-up base | 1.50b bu |
range · bear (15% cancel + low new sales) 1.48b bu (-3.4%)
→ bull (3% cancel + high new sales) 1.53b bu (-0.0%)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| bottom-up base (primary) | 1.50b bu | -1.6% |
| current pace continued | 1.46b bu | -4.9% |
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2019/20) | 1.60b bu | +4.9% |
| 5y avg pace | 1.50b bu | -2.0% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 1.51b bu (-1.3% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 1.16× of 5y avg (+16% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| china, peoples republic of | 33% | — | +1.2σ | +1.23σ | loose |
| egypt | 12% | — | +1.6σ | +1.56σ | loose |
| mexico | 8% | — | +0.9σ | +0.88σ | somewhat loose |
| indonesia | 5% | — | +1.7σ | +1.72σ | loose |
| japan | 5% | — | -0.8σ | -0.77σ | somewhat tight |
aggregate +1.14σ → tilt
-2.3%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 1.47b bu (-3.6%, -55m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ modest downward bias
next my (2026/27)
nmy
this week
net sales 9m bu
+999.9% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 33m bu | -83% | 2% of wasde |
| outstanding | 33m bu | -83% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.63b bu · may 2026 (psd online)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| analog year (rest-of-my delta) (outstanding sales match · 2023/24) | 429m bu | -73.7% |
| 5y avg pace | 479m bu | -70.6% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 446m bu (-72.7% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 3.58× of 5y avg (+258% vs 5y avg)
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 446m bu (-72.7%, -1.18b bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
current marketing year2025/26
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 35m bu · outstanding: 755m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 35m bu · outstanding: 755m bu
weekly exports shipped
wk shipped: 68m bu · cum shipped: 2.46b bu
cumulative exports shipped
wk shipped: 68m bu · cum shipped: 2.46b bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 35m bu · outstanding: 755m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 35m bu
next marketing year2026/27
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 10m bu · outstanding: 126m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 10m bu · outstanding: 126m bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 10m bu · outstanding: 126m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 10m bu
data: usda foreign agricultural service · export sales reporting (esr api) · wasde targets sourced from usda psd online
rebuilt 4 jun 2026 · latest wk 28 may 2026 · wasde may 2026 (psd online)