usda fas · export sales · weekly
export sales
weekly forward bookings and shipments of u.s. corn and soybeans via the usda fas export sales reporting program. each commodity shows both the current and next marketing year against a five-year historical band; the cumulative net-sales chart projects forward from this week's pace, the cumulative shipments chart compares that path against the live wasde target, and the destination chart breaks current outstanding sales and shipments-to-date by buyer.
summary
corn
latest data wk ending 17 sep 2026
current my (2026/27)
cmy
this week
net sales 33m bu
-56.4% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 149m bu | -3% | 5% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 172m bu | +167% | 5% of wasde |
| outstanding | 546m bu | -12% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 3.28b bu · sep 2026 (psd online)
bottom-up build · primary framework
| shipped to date | 172m bu | |
| + outstanding × 7% cancel | 508m bu | of 546m bu balance |
| + new sales contribution (5y avg) | 1.61b bu | range 1.07b bu → 2.14b bu, n=5 |
| = bottom-up base | 2.29b bu |
range · bear (15% cancel + low new sales) 1.71b bu (-47.8%)
→ bull (3% cancel + high new sales) 2.85b bu (-13.1%)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| bottom-up base (primary) | 2.29b bu | -30.0% |
| 5y avg pace | 2.37b bu | -27.8% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 2.31b bu (-29.5% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 1.41× of 5y avg (+41% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mexico | 41% | — | -0.2σ | -0.20σ | normal |
| japan | 16% | — | +1.6σ | +1.62σ | loose |
| colombia | 12% | — | +0.2σ | +0.17σ | normal |
| korea, republic of | 4% | — | +1.4σ | +1.41σ | loose |
| taiwan | 3% | — | -1.8σ | -1.78σ | tight |
aggregate +0.30σ → tilt
-0.6%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 2.29b bu (-30.0%, -981m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▼ wasde likely revised DOWN
next my (2027/28)
nmy
this week
net sales 100k bu
n/m wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | -2m bu | -464% | — |
| outstanding | 15m bu | +110% | — |
wasde n/a (pre-may release)
soybeans
latest data wk ending 17 sep 2026
current my (2026/27)
cmy
this week
net sales 21m bu
-19.6% wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | 180m bu | -16% | 11% of wasde |
| cum shipped | 58m bu | +5% | 3% of wasde |
| outstanding | 721m bu | -12% | — |
implied risk to wasde
- wasde target
- 1.68b bu · sep 2026 (psd online)
bottom-up build · primary framework
| shipped to date | 58m bu | |
| + outstanding × 7% cancel | 671m bu | of 721m bu balance |
| + new sales contribution (5y avg) | 1.11b bu | range 996m bu → 1.29b bu, n=5 |
| = bottom-up base | 1.84b bu |
range · bear (15% cancel + low new sales) 1.67b bu (-1.1%)
→ bull (3% cancel + high new sales) 2.05b bu (+21.6%)
cross-checks · all scenarios
| scenario | eom proj | vs wasde |
|---|---|---|
| bottom-up base (primary) | 1.84b bu | +9.2% |
| current pace continued | 2.04b bu | +20.8% |
| 5y avg pace | 1.93b bu | +14.8% |
weights · bottom-up 0.4 · pace continued 0.3 · analog 0.2 · 5y avg 0.1
- arcanum mid (raw)
- 1.93b bu (+14.2% vs wasde, pre-tilts)
- rest of my needs to run
- 0.87× of 5y avg (-13% vs 5y avg)
importer demand signal · top 5 buyers
| country | share | s/u z | end-stk z | combined | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| china, peoples republic of | 49% | — | +0.8σ | +0.81σ | somewhat loose |
| indonesia | 7% | — | +1.9σ | +1.86σ | loose |
| mexico | 6% | — | +1.1σ | +1.06σ | loose |
| japan | 4% | — | -0.6σ | -0.55σ | somewhat tight |
| vietnam | 3% | — | +1.5σ | +1.54σ | loose |
aggregate +0.88σ → tilt
-1.8%
- arcanum mid (adjusted)
- 1.89b bu (+12.2%, +206m bu vs wasde)
arcanum bias: ▲ wasde likely revised UP
next my (2027/28)
nmy
this week
net sales 0 bu
n/m wow
full-my pace
| value | vs 5y avg | vs wasde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cum net sales | -88k bu | -124% | — |
| outstanding | 37k bu | -95% | — |
wasde n/a (pre-may release)
current marketing year2026/27
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 33m bu · outstanding: 546m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 33m bu · outstanding: 546m bu
weekly exports shipped
wk shipped: 75m bu · cum shipped: 172m bu
cumulative exports shipped
wk shipped: 75m bu · cum shipped: 172m bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 33m bu · outstanding: 546m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 33m bu
next marketing year2027/28
weekly net sales
wk net sales: 100k bu · outstanding: 15m bu
cumulative net sales
wk net sales: 100k bu · outstanding: 15m bu
outstanding sales balance
wk net sales: 100k bu · outstanding: 15m bu
destination concentration
wk net sales: 100k bu
data: usda foreign agricultural service · export sales reporting (esr api) · wasde targets sourced from usda psd online
rebuilt 26 sep 2026 · latest wk 17 sep 2026 · wasde sep 2026 (psd online)